English Sky Bet Championship
Southampton vs Portsmouth prediction
18:00, 11/10
Kicking off soonOutcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Southampton
61%
Draw
23%
Portsmouth
16%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Southampton, negative favours Portsmouth) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Southampton - Portsmouth)+1.06
Expected total goals2.95
Expected goals Southampton / Portsmouth2.01 / 0.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.9% / 46.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.3%
Over 2.5 goals 56.6%
Over 3.5 goals 34.2%
First half
First-half result (Southampton / draw / Portsmouth)44.6% / 39.6% / 15.7%
A goal in the first half72.6%
Two or more in the first half39.3%
Half-time then full-time
Southampton lead at half-time then Southampton win39.6%
Level at half-time then Southampton win19.4%
Level at half-time then draw13.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Southampton's side
Southampton −2.028.4%
Southampton −1.7533.2%
Southampton −1.537.9%
Southampton −1.2543.7%
Southampton −1.049.5%
Southampton −0.7555.3%
Southampton −0.561.1%
Southampton −0.2566.8%
Southampton draw no bet (0.0)72.5%
Southampton +0.2578.2%
Southampton +0.583.9%
Southampton +0.7586.5%
Southampton +1.089.1%
Southampton +1.594.3%
Southampton +2.096.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Southampton win1.64
Draw4.38
Portsmouth win6.22
Over 2.51.77
Under 2.52.31
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Southampton wins by more than 1 goals38%
Portsmouth wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners10.9
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%