Outcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Liverpool
32%
Draw
27%
Man City
41%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Liverpool, negative favours Man City) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Liverpool - Man City)-0.21
Expected total goals2.83
Expected goals Liverpool / Man City1.31 / 1.52
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.9% / 42.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.2%
Over 2.5 goals 53.7%
Over 3.5 goals 31.4%
First half
First-half result (Liverpool / draw / Man City)26.0% / 42.1% / 31.9%
A goal in the first half71.2%
Two or more in the first half37.2%
Half-time then full-time
Man City lead at half-time then Man City win25.0%
Liverpool lead at half-time then Liverpool win18.7%
Level at half-time then draw15.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Liverpool's side
Liverpool −2.09.6%
Liverpool −1.7512.0%
Liverpool −1.514.3%
Liverpool −1.2518.7%
Liverpool −1.023.1%
Liverpool −0.7527.5%
Liverpool −0.531.9%
Liverpool −0.2538.6%
Liverpool draw no bet (0.0)45.3%
Liverpool +0.2551.9%
Liverpool +0.558.6%
Liverpool +0.7563.7%
Liverpool +1.068.9%
Liverpool +1.579.2%
Liverpool +2.085.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Liverpool win3.13
Draw3.75
Man City win2.42
Over 2.51.86
Under 2.52.16
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Liverpool wins by more than 1 goals14%
Man City wins by more than 1 goals21%
Corners
Expected total corners10.2
6.5+ corners in the match44%
Cards
Expected total cards4.0
2.5+ cards in the match57%