Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Besiktas
81%
Draw
13%
Erzurum BB
6%
Actual result: Besiktas 3 – 0 Erzurum BB · Besiktas winJarvis gave this outcome: 81% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Besiktas, negative favours Erzurum BB) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Besiktas - Erzurum BB)+2.02
Expected total goals3.13
Expected goals Besiktas / Erzurum BB2.58 / 0.56
Both teams to score (yes / no)39.1% / 60.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.6%
Over 2.5 goals 60.6%
Over 3.5 goals 38.3%
First half
First-half result (Besiktas / draw / Erzurum BB)60.4% / 31.2% / 8.4%
A goal in the first half76.0%
Two or more in the first half40.7%
Half-time then full-time
Besiktas lead at half-time then Besiktas win57.5%
Level at half-time then Besiktas win20.7%
Level at half-time then draw8.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Besiktas's side
Besiktas −2.048.0%
Besiktas −1.7553.7%
Besiktas −1.559.4%
Besiktas −1.2564.9%
Besiktas −1.070.3%
Besiktas −0.7575.8%
Besiktas −0.581.2%
Besiktas −0.2584.4%
Besiktas draw no bet (0.0)87.5%
Besiktas +0.2590.6%
Besiktas +0.593.7%
Besiktas +0.7595.0%
Besiktas +1.096.2%
Besiktas +1.598.7%
Besiktas +2.099.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Besiktas win1.23
Draw7.99
Erzurum BB win15.97
Over 2.51.65
Under 2.52.54
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Besiktas wins by more than 1 goals59%
Erzurum BB wins by more than 1 goals1%