Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Besiktas
55%
Draw
23%
Marseille
21%
Actual result: Besiktas 4 – 1 Marseille · Besiktas winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Besiktas, negative favours Marseille) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Besiktas - Marseille)+0.81
Expected total goals3.16
Expected goals Besiktas / Marseille1.98 / 1.17
Both teams to score (yes / no)60.4% / 39.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 83.2%
Over 2.5 goals 61.1%
Over 3.5 goals 38.8%
First half
First-half result (Besiktas / draw / Marseille)41.3% / 39.0% / 19.7%
A goal in the first half74.8%
Two or more in the first half42.5%
Half-time then full-time
Besiktas lead at half-time then Besiktas win35.3%
Level at half-time then Besiktas win17.5%
Level at half-time then draw13.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Besiktas's side
Besiktas −2.024.7%
Besiktas −1.7529.0%
Besiktas −1.533.3%
Besiktas −1.2538.8%
Besiktas −1.044.3%
Besiktas −0.7549.8%
Besiktas −0.555.3%
Besiktas −0.2561.1%
Besiktas draw no bet (0.0)67.0%
Besiktas +0.2572.9%
Besiktas +0.578.7%
Besiktas +0.7581.9%
Besiktas +1.085.0%
Besiktas +1.591.4%
Besiktas +2.094.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Besiktas win1.81
Draw4.27
Marseille win4.70
Over 2.51.64
Under 2.52.57
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Besiktas wins by more than 1 goals33%
Marseille wins by more than 1 goals9%