Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Birmingham
65%
Draw
21%
Preston
14%
Actual result: Birmingham 4 – 0 Preston · Birmingham winJarvis gave this outcome: 65% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Birmingham, negative favours Preston) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Birmingham - Preston)+1.20
Expected total goals2.80
Expected goals Birmingham / Preston2.00 / 0.80
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.0% / 52.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.2%
Over 2.5 goals 53.1%
Over 3.5 goals 30.8%
First half
First-half result (Birmingham / draw / Preston)47.1% / 38.9% / 14.0%
A goal in the first half71.3%
Two or more in the first half36.2%
Half-time then full-time
Birmingham lead at half-time then Birmingham win42.5%
Level at half-time then Birmingham win20.2%
Level at half-time then draw13.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Birmingham's side
Birmingham −2.030.5%
Birmingham −1.7535.5%
Birmingham −1.540.6%
Birmingham −1.2546.7%
Birmingham −1.052.8%
Birmingham −0.7559.0%
Birmingham −0.565.1%
Birmingham −0.2570.4%
Birmingham draw no bet (0.0)75.7%
Birmingham +0.2580.9%
Birmingham +0.586.2%
Birmingham +0.7588.6%
Birmingham +1.091.0%
Birmingham +1.595.8%
Birmingham +2.097.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Birmingham win1.54
Draw4.73
Preston win7.25
Over 2.51.88
Under 2.52.13
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Birmingham wins by more than 1 goals41%
Preston wins by more than 1 goals4%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match timeline
- 24′SubstitutionDelano Burgzorg on, Liam Gibbs off
- 34′GoalLiam Millar (assist: Patrick Roberts)
- 45+2′GoalAugust Priske (assist: Alex Cochrane)
- 45+4′GoalAugust Priske (assist: Jay Stansfield)
- 45′SubstitutionAndrew Moran on, Callum Lang off
- 47′Yellow cardStanley Mills
- 50′Yellow cardLiam Millar
- 56′Red cardStanley Mills
- 61′SubstitutionMax Bird on, Jhon Elmer Solis Romero off
- 61′SubstitutionDemarai Gray on, Liam Millar off
- 61′SubstitutionLewis Gibson on, Alfie Devine off
- 75′SubstitutionCarlos Vicente on, Patrick Roberts off
- 75′SubstitutionTaylor·Gardner Hickman on, Tomoki Iwata off
- 76′GoalDemarai Gray (assist: Max Bird)
- 84′SubstitutionMarvin Ducksch on, Jay Stansfield off
Match statistics
BirminghamPreston
76Possession24
1.82Expected goals (xG)0.52
13Total shots6
5Shots on target1
3Corners3
8Fouls12
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards1
3Offsides2
1Saves2
86Pass accuracy (%)64
Top rated players
| 8.8 | A. Priske · Birmingham | 2 goals |
| 8.5 | A. Cochrane · Birmingham | 1 assist |
| 8.1 | L. Millar · Birmingham | 1 goal |
| 8.0 | C. Klarer · Birmingham | |
| 7.9 | M. Bird · Birmingham | 1 assist |
| 7.7 | P. Roberts · Birmingham | 1 assist |
Birmingham vs Preston lineups
BirminghamFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: C. Davies
| 1 | J. Beadle | GK |
| 26 | B. Osayi-Samuel | DF |
| 5 | P. Neumann | DF |
| 4 | C. Klarer | DF |
| 20 | A. Cochrane | DF |
| 24 | T. Iwata | MF |
| 14 | J. Solis | MF |
| 16 | P. Roberts | MF |
| 28 | J. Stansfield | MF |
| 17 | L. Millar | MF |
| 9 | A. Priske | FW |
| 21 | R. Allsop | GK |
| 18 | M. Bird | MF |
| 33 | M. Ducksch | FW |
| 23 | D. Fry | DF |
| 19 | T. Gardner-Hickman | MF |
| 10 | D. Gray | FW |
| 2 | E. Laird | DF |
| 7 | Carlos Vicente | FW |
| 32 | L. Vazquez | FW |
PrestonFormation 3-4-2-1Coach: G. Alexander
| 1 | D. Iversen | GK |
| 24 | O. Offiah | DF |
| 14 | J. Storey | DF |
| 16 | A. Hughes | DF |
| 17 | S. Mills | MF |
| 27 | L. Leroy | MF |
| 15 | J. Thompson | MF |
| 11 | T. Small | MF |
| 7 | A. Devine | MF |
| 20 | L. Gibbs | MF |
| 10 | C. Lang | FW |
| 9 | J. Erabi | FW |
| 19 | L. Gibson | DF |
| 30 | G. Gryba | FW |
| 6 | L. Lindsay | DF |
| 23 | A. Moran | MF |
| 21 | L. Nicholls | GK |
| 2 | Pol Valentin | DF |
| 3 | A. Vukcevic | DF |
| 37 | D. Burgzorg | FW |
Birmingham vs Preston injuries and suspensions
Birmingham- M. LeonardOut · Achilles Tendon Injury
- Paik Seung-HoOut · Health problems
Preston- A. McCannOut · Hamstring Injury
- B. PottsOut · Ankle Injury
- T. CarrollDoubtful · Ankle Injury
Birmingham and Preston recent form
BirminghamWDWLD| 10/10/2026 | @ West Brom | 1–0 |
| 19/09/2026 | Middlesbrough | 2–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | @ Derby | 2–1 |
| 09/09/2026 | @ Norwich | 1–2 |
| 06/09/2026 | Wolves | 2–2 |
PrestonLDLLW| 10/10/2026 | Millwall | 0–1 |
| 19/09/2026 | @ QPR | 2–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Lincoln | 0–1 |
| 08/09/2026 | @ Watford | 1–2 |
| 05/09/2026 | Blackburn | 2–1 |
Birmingham vs Preston head to head
Last 10 meetings: Birmingham won 5, drew 2, lost 3. Goals: 10–8.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | Birmingham | 2–1 | Preston |
| 21/10/2025 | Preston | 0–1 | Birmingham |
| 01/04/2024 | Birmingham | 1–0 | Preston |
| 19/09/2023 | Preston | 2–1 | Birmingham |
| 21/01/2023 | Birmingham | 1–2 | Preston |
| 03/09/2022 | Preston | 0–1 | Birmingham |
| 15/01/2022 | Preston | 1–1 | Birmingham |
| 25/09/2021 | Birmingham | 0–0 | Preston |
| 20/01/2021 | Birmingham | 0–1 | Preston |
| 31/10/2020 | Preston | 1–2 | Birmingham |
Match information
- Referee
- Sam Allison
- Venue
- St. Andrew's Stadium, Birmingham
- Round
- 10