UEFA Champions League
Aston Villa vs Fenerbahce prediction
02:00, 15/10
GMT+7
Kicking off soonOutcome probability
Jarvis's pre-match prediction · updates live once the ball is rolling
Offline
Aston Villa
59%
Draw
23%
Fenerbahce
18%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Aston Villa, negative favours Fenerbahce) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Aston Villa - Fenerbahce)+0.94
Expected total goals2.83
Expected goals Aston Villa / Fenerbahce1.88 / 0.95
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.5% / 47.5%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.0%
Over 2.5 goals 53.8%
Over 3.5 goals 31.5%
First half
First-half result (Aston Villa / draw / Fenerbahce)42.9% / 40.2% / 17.0%
A goal in the first half71.5%
Two or more in the first half37.0%
Half-time then full-time
Aston Villa lead at half-time then Aston Villa win37.5%
Level at half-time then Aston Villa win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw14.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Aston Villa's side
Aston Villa −2.025.8%
Aston Villa −1.7530.3%
Aston Villa −1.534.9%
Aston Villa −1.2540.8%
Aston Villa −1.046.8%
Aston Villa −0.7552.8%
Aston Villa −0.558.7%
Aston Villa −0.2564.5%
Aston Villa draw no bet (0.0)70.4%
Aston Villa +0.2576.2%
Aston Villa +0.582.0%
Aston Villa +0.7585.0%
Aston Villa +1.087.9%
Aston Villa +1.593.8%
Aston Villa +2.096.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Aston Villa win1.70
Draw4.29
Fenerbahce win5.57
Over 2.51.86
Under 2.52.17
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals35%
Fenerbahce wins by more than 1 goals6%