English Sky Bet Championship

Birmingham vs Southampton prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Birmingham vs Southampton (English Sky Bet Championship), 02/09/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Birmingham 35%, the draw 28% and Southampton 37%; the actual result had a 28% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 2.8.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Birmingham

35%

Draw

28%

Southampton

37%

Actual result: Birmingham 1 – 1 Southampton · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Birmingham, negative favours Southampton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Birmingham - Southampton)-0.04

Expected total goals2.78

Expected goals Birmingham / Southampton1.37 / 1.41

Both teams to score (yes / no)57.8% / 42.2%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 77.9%

Over 2.5 goals 52.7%

Over 3.5 goals 30.4%

First half

First-half result (Birmingham / draw / Southampton)27.8% / 43.4% / 28.8%

A goal in the first half70.2%

Two or more in the first half36.9%

Half-time then full-time

Southampton lead at half-time then Southampton win22.0%

Birmingham lead at half-time then Birmingham win20.9%

Level at half-time then draw17.0%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Birmingham's side

Birmingham −2.011.3%

Birmingham −1.7514.0%

Birmingham −1.516.6%

Birmingham −1.2521.3%

Birmingham −1.025.9%

Birmingham −0.7530.5%

Birmingham −0.535.2%

Birmingham −0.2542.2%

Birmingham draw no bet (0.0)49.2%

Birmingham +0.2556.2%

Birmingham +0.563.2%

Birmingham +0.7567.9%

Birmingham +1.072.7%

Birmingham +1.582.2%

Birmingham +2.087.8%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Birmingham win2.84

Draw3.57

Southampton win2.72

Over 2.51.90

Under 2.52.11

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Birmingham wins by more than 1 goals17%

Southampton wins by more than 1 goals18%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match