Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bolton
17%
Draw
23%
West Ham
60%
Actual result: Bolton 2 – 3 West Ham · West Ham winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bolton, negative favours West Ham) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bolton - West Ham)-1.04
Expected total goals3.11
Expected goals Bolton / West Ham1.03 / 2.07
Both teams to score (yes / no)57.4% / 42.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.7%
Over 2.5 goals 60.0%
Over 3.5 goals 37.7%
First half
First-half result (Bolton / draw / West Ham)16.6% / 38.9% / 44.4%
A goal in the first half74.2%
Two or more in the first half41.9%
Half-time then full-time
West Ham lead at half-time then West Ham win39.2%
Level at half-time then West Ham win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw13.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bolton's side
Bolton −2.04.1%
Bolton −1.755.2%
Bolton −1.56.4%
Bolton −1.259.1%
Bolton −1.011.7%
Bolton −0.7514.4%
Bolton −0.517.1%
Bolton −0.2522.7%
Bolton draw no bet (0.0)28.4%
Bolton +0.2534.1%
Bolton +0.539.7%
Bolton +0.7545.3%
Bolton +1.050.9%
Bolton +1.562.2%
Bolton +2.071.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bolton win5.86
Draw4.41
West Ham win1.66
Over 2.51.67
Under 2.52.50
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bolton wins by more than 1 goals6%
West Ham wins by more than 1 goals38%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match53%
Cards
Expected total cards2.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%