Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bosnia
31%
Draw
30%
Poland
39%
Actual result: Bosnia 1 – 0 Poland · Bosnia winJarvis gave this outcome: 31%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bosnia, negative favours Poland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bosnia - Poland)-0.18
Expected total goals2.46
Expected goals Bosnia / Poland1.14 / 1.32
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.3% / 48.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.9%
Over 2.5 goals 44.6%
Over 3.5 goals 23.4%
First half
First-half result (Bosnia / draw / Poland)24.2% / 46.2% / 29.5%
A goal in the first half65.8%
Two or more in the first half31.5%
Half-time then full-time
Poland lead at half-time then Poland win23.4%
Level at half-time then draw19.3%
Bosnia lead at half-time then Bosnia win17.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bosnia's side
Bosnia −2.08.5%
Bosnia −1.7510.7%
Bosnia −1.513.0%
Bosnia −1.2517.4%
Bosnia −1.021.8%
Bosnia −0.7526.2%
Bosnia −0.530.6%
Bosnia −0.2538.1%
Bosnia draw no bet (0.0)45.7%
Bosnia +0.2553.2%
Bosnia +0.560.7%
Bosnia +0.7565.9%
Bosnia +1.071.1%
Bosnia +1.581.4%
Bosnia +2.087.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bosnia win3.27
Draw3.32
Poland win2.54
Over 2.52.24
Under 2.51.80
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bosnia wins by more than 1 goals13%
Poland wins by more than 1 goals19%
Corners
Expected total corners8.4
6.5+ corners in the match46%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match42%