Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bosnia
34%
Draw
28%
Sweden
38%
Actual result: Bosnia 1 – 1 Sweden · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bosnia, negative favours Sweden) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bosnia - Sweden)-0.10
Expected total goals2.95
Expected goals Bosnia / Sweden1.42 / 1.53
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.0% / 39.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.9%
Over 2.5 goals 56.5%
Over 3.5 goals 34.1%
First half
First-half result (Bosnia / draw / Sweden)27.1% / 43.0% / 30.0%
A goal in the first half71.7%
Two or more in the first half39.9%
Half-time then full-time
Sweden lead at half-time then Sweden win23.2%
Bosnia lead at half-time then Bosnia win20.1%
Level at half-time then draw16.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bosnia's side
Bosnia −2.011.2%
Bosnia −1.7513.8%
Bosnia −1.516.4%
Bosnia −1.2520.7%
Bosnia −1.025.1%
Bosnia −0.7529.4%
Bosnia −0.533.8%
Bosnia −0.2540.7%
Bosnia draw no bet (0.0)47.7%
Bosnia +0.2554.6%
Bosnia +0.561.6%
Bosnia +0.7566.3%
Bosnia +1.071.0%
Bosnia +1.580.4%
Bosnia +2.086.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bosnia win2.96
Draw3.59
Sweden win2.60
Over 2.51.77
Under 2.52.30
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bosnia wins by more than 1 goals16%
Sweden wins by more than 1 goals20%
Corners
Expected total corners8.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards3.6
2.5+ cards in the match48%