Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Botafogo FR
30%
Draw
28%
Vasco Da Gama
42%
Actual result: Botafogo FR 1 – 2 Vasco Da Gama · Vasco Da Gama winJarvis gave this outcome: 42% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Botafogo FR, negative favours Vasco Da Gama) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Botafogo FR - Vasco Da Gama)-0.28
Expected total goals2.80
Expected goals Botafogo FR / Vasco Da Gama1.26 / 1.54
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.0% / 42.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.6%
Over 2.5 goals 53.1%
Over 3.5 goals 30.9%
First half
First-half result (Botafogo FR / draw / Vasco Da Gama)24.2% / 43.9% / 31.9%
A goal in the first half70.1%
Two or more in the first half37.5%
Half-time then full-time
Vasco Da Gama lead at half-time then Vasco Da Gama win25.6%
Level at half-time then draw17.4%
Botafogo FR lead at half-time then Botafogo FR win17.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Botafogo FR's side
Botafogo FR −2.08.9%
Botafogo FR −1.7511.1%
Botafogo FR −1.513.3%
Botafogo FR −1.2517.4%
Botafogo FR −1.021.4%
Botafogo FR −0.7525.5%
Botafogo FR −0.529.6%
Botafogo FR −0.2536.7%
Botafogo FR draw no bet (0.0)43.8%
Botafogo FR +0.2550.9%
Botafogo FR +0.558.0%
Botafogo FR +0.7563.0%
Botafogo FR +1.068.1%
Botafogo FR +1.578.1%
Botafogo FR +2.084.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Botafogo FR win3.38
Draw3.52
Vasco Da Gama win2.38
Over 2.51.88
Under 2.52.13
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Botafogo FR wins by more than 1 goals13%
Vasco Da Gama wins by more than 1 goals22%