Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Braga
70%
Draw
19%
Estoril Praia
11%
Actual result: Braga 1 – 0 Estoril Praia · Braga winJarvis gave this outcome: 70% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Braga, negative favours Estoril Praia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Braga - Estoril Praia)+1.43
Expected total goals2.83
Expected goals Braga / Estoril Praia2.13 / 0.70
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.7% / 55.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 77.7%
Over 2.5 goals 53.8%
Over 3.5 goals 31.5%
First half
First-half result (Braga / draw / Estoril Praia)50.7% / 37.6% / 11.7%
A goal in the first half71.8%
Two or more in the first half36.7%
Half-time then full-time
Braga lead at half-time then Braga win46.7%
Level at half-time then Braga win21.0%
Level at half-time then draw12.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Braga's side
Braga −2.035.2%
Braga −1.7540.5%
Braga −1.545.8%
Braga −1.2551.9%
Braga −1.058.0%
Braga −0.7564.1%
Braga −0.570.1%
Braga −0.2574.9%
Braga draw no bet (0.0)79.7%
Braga +0.2584.5%
Braga +0.589.3%
Braga +0.7591.2%
Braga +1.093.2%
Braga +1.597.1%
Braga +2.098.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Braga win1.43
Draw5.23
Estoril Praia win9.32
Over 2.51.86
Under 2.52.17
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Braga wins by more than 1 goals46%
Estoril Praia wins by more than 1 goals3%