Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Braga
29%
Draw
31%
Sporting Lisbon
40%
Actual result: Braga 1 – 3 Sporting Lisbon · Sporting Lisbon winJarvis gave this outcome: 40% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Braga, negative favours Sporting Lisbon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Braga - Sporting Lisbon)-0.24
Expected total goals2.53
Expected goals Braga / Sporting Lisbon1.14 / 1.38
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.2% / 46.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.0%
Over 2.5 goals 46.3%
Over 3.5 goals 24.8%
First half
First-half result (Braga / draw / Sporting Lisbon)23.2% / 46.8% / 30.1%
A goal in the first half66.1%
Two or more in the first half33.2%
Half-time then full-time
Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win24.2%
Level at half-time then draw19.9%
Braga lead at half-time then Braga win16.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Braga's side
Braga −2.08.2%
Braga −1.7510.4%
Braga −1.512.5%
Braga −1.2516.6%
Braga −1.020.7%
Braga −0.7524.8%
Braga −0.528.9%
Braga −0.2536.6%
Braga draw no bet (0.0)44.4%
Braga +0.2552.1%
Braga +0.559.9%
Braga +0.7564.9%
Braga +1.070.0%
Braga +1.580.1%
Braga +2.086.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Braga win3.46
Draw3.23
Sporting Lisbon win2.49
Over 2.52.16
Under 2.51.86
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Braga wins by more than 1 goals13%
Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals20%