Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Brann
18%
Draw
19%
Bodo Glimt
62%
Actual result: Brann 2 – 1 Bodo Glimt · Brann winJarvis gave this outcome: 18%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Brann, negative favours Bodo Glimt) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Brann - Bodo Glimt)-1.18
Expected total goals3.89
Expected goals Brann / Bodo Glimt1.35 / 2.54
Both teams to score (yes / no)69.1% / 30.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 90.8%
Over 2.5 goals 74.6%
Over 3.5 goals 54.5%
First half
First-half result (Brann / draw / Bodo Glimt)18.4% / 34.3% / 47.4%
A goal in the first half81.4%
Two or more in the first half53.5%
Half-time then full-time
Bodo Glimt lead at half-time then Bodo Glimt win41.6%
Level at half-time then Bodo Glimt win17.5%
Brann lead at half-time then Brann win10.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Brann's side
Brann −2.05.2%
Brann −1.756.5%
Brann −1.57.8%
Brann −1.2510.4%
Brann −1.013.0%
Brann −0.7515.6%
Brann −0.518.2%
Brann −0.2523.1%
Brann draw no bet (0.0)27.9%
Brann +0.2532.8%
Brann +0.537.6%
Brann +0.7542.7%
Brann +1.047.7%
Brann +1.557.8%
Brann +2.066.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Brann win5.50
Draw5.14
Bodo Glimt win1.60
Over 2.51.34
Under 2.53.93
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Brann wins by more than 1 goals8%
Bodo Glimt wins by more than 1 goals42%