Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Brentford
56%
Draw
26%
Sunderland
18%
Actual result: Brentford 1 – 1 Sunderland · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Brentford, negative favours Sunderland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Brentford - Sunderland)+0.83
Expected total goals2.66
Expected goals Brentford / Sunderland1.75 / 0.91
Both teams to score (yes / no)50.6% / 49.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.6%
Over 2.5 goals 49.6%
Over 3.5 goals 27.6%
First half
First-half result (Brentford / draw / Sunderland)40.3% / 43.0% / 16.7%
A goal in the first half68.7%
Two or more in the first half34.7%
Half-time then full-time
Brentford lead at half-time then Brentford win35.2%
Level at half-time then Brentford win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Brentford's side
Brentford −2.023.3%
Brentford −1.7527.7%
Brentford −1.532.1%
Brentford −1.2538.0%
Brentford −1.044.0%
Brentford −0.7549.9%
Brentford −0.555.8%
Brentford −0.2562.3%
Brentford draw no bet (0.0)68.8%
Brentford +0.2575.3%
Brentford +0.581.8%
Brentford +0.7584.7%
Brentford +1.087.7%
Brentford +1.593.6%
Brentford +2.096.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Brentford win1.79
Draw3.85
Sunderland win5.49
Over 2.52.02
Under 2.51.98
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Brentford wins by more than 1 goals32%
Sunderland wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match43%