Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bristol City
44%
Draw
30%
Blackburn
26%
Actual result: Bristol City 0 – 1 Blackburn · Blackburn winJarvis gave this outcome: 26%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bristol City, negative favours Blackburn) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bristol City - Blackburn)+0.37
Expected total goals2.52
Expected goals Bristol City / Blackburn1.45 / 1.08
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.1% / 47.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.5%
Over 2.5 goals 46.2%
Over 3.5 goals 24.7%
First half
First-half result (Bristol City / draw / Blackburn)32.4% / 46.0% / 21.6%
A goal in the first half66.4%
Two or more in the first half32.8%
Half-time then full-time
Bristol City lead at half-time then Bristol City win26.6%
Level at half-time then draw19.1%
Level at half-time then Bristol City win16.3%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bristol City's side
Bristol City −2.015.4%
Bristol City −1.7518.9%
Bristol City −1.522.3%
Bristol City −1.2527.7%
Bristol City −1.033.1%
Bristol City −0.7538.4%
Bristol City −0.543.8%
Bristol City −0.2551.3%
Bristol City draw no bet (0.0)58.8%
Bristol City +0.2566.2%
Bristol City +0.573.7%
Bristol City +0.7577.6%
Bristol City +1.081.5%
Bristol City +1.589.3%
Bristol City +2.093.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bristol City win2.28
Draw3.35
Blackburn win3.80
Over 2.52.17
Under 2.51.86
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bristol City wins by more than 1 goals22%
Blackburn wins by more than 1 goals11%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match timeline
- 38′GoalOladapo Afolayan (assist: Sean McLoughlin)
- 45′SubstitutionYu Hirakawa on, Sam Greenwood off
- 62′SubstitutionMoussa·Baradji on, Todd Cantwell off
- 62′SubstitutionAugustus Kargbo on, Ryoya Morishita off
- 63′SubstitutionJ. Fevrier on, Oladapo Afolayan off
- 67′SubstitutionBrian de Keersmaecker on, Jason Knight off
- 67′SubstitutionTomi Horvat on, Scott Twine off
- 73′SubstitutionAndri Gudjohnsen on, Kristi Montgomery off
- 75′SubstitutionRio Cardines on, George Tanner off
- 75′SubstitutionElijah Adebayo on, Jed Wallace off
Match statistics
Bristol CityBlackburn
56Possession44
1.68Expected goals (xG)0.21
20Total shots3
7Shots on target1
10Corners5
8Fouls7
0Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
3Offsides5
0Saves7
79Pass accuracy (%)78
Top rated players
| 8.0 | O. Afolayan · Blackburn | 1 goal |
| 7.7 | S. McLoughlin · Blackburn | 1 assist |
| 7.5 | B. Toth · Blackburn | |
| 7.4 | L. Eissat · Bristol City | |
| 7.2 | M. Baradji · Blackburn | |
| 7.0 | H. Carter · Blackburn |
Bristol City vs Blackburn lineups
Bristol CityFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: M. Skubala
| 1 | S. Tickle | GK |
| 19 | G. Tanner | DF |
| 2 | L. Eissat | DF |
| 5 | R. Atkinson | DF |
| 3 | C. Pring | DF |
| 12 | J. Knight | MF |
| 27 | G. Yah | MF |
| 17 | J. Wallace | MF |
| 20 | S. Greenwood | MF |
| 10 | S. Twine | MF |
| 23 | D. Ballard | FW |
| 45 | E. Adebayo | FW |
| 11 | S. Bell | FW |
| 21 | Rio Cardines | DF |
| 40 | B. Collins | GK |
| 6 | B. De Keersmaecker | MF |
| 7 | Y. Hirakawa | MF |
| 14 | T. Horvat | MF |
| 15 | L. McNally | DF |
| 4 | A. Randell | MF |
BlackburnFormation 3-4-2-1Coach: Tony Mowbray
| 22 | B. Toth | GK |
| 6 | Tom Atcheson | DF |
| 17 | H. Carter | DF |
| 15 | S. McLoughlin | DF |
| 2 | R. Alebiosu | MF |
| 8 | Sam Morsy | MF |
| 31 | Kristi Montgomery | MF |
| 3 | H. Pickering | MF |
| 25 | R. Morishita | MF |
| 21 | O. Afolayan | MF |
| 10 | T. Cantwell | FW |
| 30 | J. Garrett | MF |
| 9 | A. Gudjohnsen | FW |
| 29 | M. Jorgensen | FW |
| 7 | A. Kargbo | FW |
| 1 | A. Pears | GK |
| 11 | J. Fevrier | FW |
| 14 | D. De Neve | MF |
| 27 | Gady Beyuku | DF |
| 24 | M. Baradji | MF |
Bristol City vs Blackburn injuries and suspensions
Bristol City- R. DickieOut · Knee Injury
- N. EileDoubtful · Illness
- L. TolajDoubtful · Knock
Blackburn- A. ForshawOut · Hip Injury
- M. LitherlandOut · Muscle Injury
- L. MillerOut · Achilles Tendon Injury
- Y. OhashiOut · Hamstring Injury
- Y. RibeiroOut · Hamstring Injury
- M. JorgensenDoubtful · Hamstring Injury
- S. WhartonDoubtful · Achilles Tendon Injury
Bristol City and Blackburn recent form
Bristol CityDWWLL| 10/10/2026 | @ Charlton | 1–1 |
| 03/10/2026 | @ Crystal Palace | 2–0 |
| 18/09/2026 | Watford | 1–0 |
| 15/09/2026 | Lincoln | 0–1 |
| 12/09/2026 | @ Southampton | 1–4 |
BlackburnWDWLL| 10/10/2026 | Cardiff | 2–1 |
| 19/09/2026 | @ Portsmouth | 2–2 |
| 12/09/2026 | Millwall | 3–1 |
| 08/09/2026 | Sheffield Utd | 1–2 |
| 05/09/2026 | @ Preston | 1–2 |
Bristol City vs Blackburn head to head
Last 10 meetings: Bristol City won 5, drew 2, lost 3. Goals: 16–12.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/02/2026 | Blackburn | 1–2 | Bristol City |
| 04/11/2025 | Bristol City | 0–1 | Blackburn |
| 25/01/2025 | Bristol City | 2–1 | Blackburn |
| 14/09/2024 | Blackburn | 3–0 | Bristol City |
| 10/04/2024 | Bristol City | 5–0 | Blackburn |
| 12/12/2023 | Blackburn | 2–1 | Bristol City |
| 21/01/2023 | Bristol City | 1–1 | Blackburn |
| 03/09/2022 | Blackburn | 2–3 | Bristol City |
| 12/03/2022 | Blackburn | 0–1 | Bristol City |
| 20/11/2021 | Bristol City | 1–1 | Blackburn |
Match information
- Referee
- David Webb
- Venue
- Ashton Gate Stadium, Bristol
- Round
- 10