Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bristol City
49%
Draw
28%
Lincoln
22%
Actual result: Bristol City 0 – 1 Lincoln · Lincoln winJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bristol City, negative favours Lincoln) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bristol City - Lincoln)+0.58
Expected total goals2.46
Expected goals Bristol City / Lincoln1.52 / 0.94
Both teams to score (yes / no)48.8% / 51.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.6%
Over 2.5 goals 44.5%
Over 3.5 goals 23.3%
First half
First-half result (Bristol City / draw / Lincoln)35.8% / 45.3% / 18.9%
A goal in the first half65.9%
Two or more in the first half31.3%
Half-time then full-time
Bristol City lead at half-time then Bristol City win30.3%
Level at half-time then draw18.4%
Level at half-time then Bristol City win17.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bristol City's side
Bristol City −2.018.2%
Bristol City −1.7522.1%
Bristol City −1.526.0%
Bristol City −1.2531.8%
Bristol City −1.037.7%
Bristol City −0.7543.6%
Bristol City −0.549.5%
Bristol City −0.2556.6%
Bristol City draw no bet (0.0)63.7%
Bristol City +0.2570.8%
Bristol City +0.577.9%
Bristol City +0.7581.4%
Bristol City +1.084.9%
Bristol City +1.591.9%
Bristol City +2.094.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bristol City win2.02
Draw3.52
Lincoln win4.51
Over 2.52.25
Under 2.51.80
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bristol City wins by more than 1 goals26%
Lincoln wins by more than 1 goals8%