Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bristol City
55%
Draw
25%
Watford
20%
Actual result: Bristol City 1 – 0 Watford · Bristol City winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bristol City, negative favours Watford) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bristol City - Watford)+0.78
Expected total goals2.81
Expected goals Bristol City / Watford1.80 / 1.01
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.3% / 45.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 78.3%
Over 2.5 goals 53.3%
Over 3.5 goals 31.1%
First half
First-half result (Bristol City / draw / Watford)40.0% / 41.9% / 18.2%
A goal in the first half70.7%
Two or more in the first half37.2%
Half-time then full-time
Bristol City lead at half-time then Bristol City win34.5%
Level at half-time then Bristol City win18.3%
Level at half-time then draw15.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bristol City's side
Bristol City −2.023.1%
Bristol City −1.7527.3%
Bristol City −1.531.6%
Bristol City −1.2537.4%
Bristol City −1.043.1%
Bristol City −0.7548.8%
Bristol City −0.554.6%
Bristol City −0.2560.9%
Bristol City draw no bet (0.0)67.3%
Bristol City +0.2573.7%
Bristol City +0.580.0%
Bristol City +0.7583.1%
Bristol City +1.086.2%
Bristol City +1.592.5%
Bristol City +2.095.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bristol City win1.83
Draw3.93
Watford win5.01
Over 2.51.87
Under 2.52.14
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bristol City wins by more than 1 goals32%
Watford wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners10.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%