Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Bulgaria
54%
Draw
30%
Estonia
17%
Actual result: Bulgaria 0 – 0 Estonia · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Bulgaria, negative favours Estonia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Bulgaria - Estonia)+0.73
Expected total goals2.05
Expected goals Bulgaria / Estonia1.39 / 0.66
Both teams to score (yes / no)37.3% / 62.7%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 61.8%
Over 2.5 goals 33.7%
Over 3.5 goals 15.2%
First half
First-half result (Bulgaria / draw / Estonia)36.8% / 48.8% / 14.4%
A goal in the first half59.6%
Two or more in the first half24.2%
Half-time then full-time
Bulgaria lead at half-time then Bulgaria win32.5%
Level at half-time then draw21.3%
Level at half-time then Bulgaria win20.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Bulgaria's side
Bulgaria −2.018.8%
Bulgaria −1.7522.9%
Bulgaria −1.527.1%
Bulgaria −1.2533.7%
Bulgaria −1.040.3%
Bulgaria −0.7546.9%
Bulgaria −0.553.5%
Bulgaria −0.2561.0%
Bulgaria draw no bet (0.0)68.4%
Bulgaria +0.2575.9%
Bulgaria +0.583.3%
Bulgaria +0.7586.3%
Bulgaria +1.089.3%
Bulgaria +1.595.3%
Bulgaria +2.097.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Bulgaria win1.87
Draw3.35
Estonia win6.00
Over 2.52.97
Under 2.51.51
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Bulgaria wins by more than 1 goals27%
Estonia wins by more than 1 goals5%