Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Burnley
59%
Draw
25%
Charlton
16%
Actual result: Burnley 2 – 2 Charlton · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 25%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Burnley, negative favours Charlton) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Burnley - Charlton)+0.96
Expected total goals2.57
Expected goals Burnley / Charlton1.76 / 0.80
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.6% / 53.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 73.5%
Over 2.5 goals 47.3%
Over 3.5 goals 25.7%
First half
First-half result (Burnley / draw / Charlton)42.4% / 42.6% / 14.9%
A goal in the first half67.8%
Two or more in the first half32.8%
Half-time then full-time
Burnley lead at half-time then Burnley win37.7%
Level at half-time then Burnley win19.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Burnley's side
Burnley −2.025.2%
Burnley −1.7529.9%
Burnley −1.534.5%
Burnley −1.2540.7%
Burnley −1.046.9%
Burnley −0.7553.1%
Burnley −0.559.3%
Burnley −0.2565.5%
Burnley draw no bet (0.0)71.7%
Burnley +0.2577.9%
Burnley +0.584.1%
Burnley +0.7586.8%
Burnley +1.089.6%
Burnley +1.595.0%
Burnley +2.096.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Burnley win1.68
Draw4.03
Charlton win6.30
Over 2.52.11
Under 2.51.90
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Burnley wins by more than 1 goals35%
Charlton wins by more than 1 goals5%
Probability trajectory · full match
Match timeline
- 36′GoalJacob Bruun Larsen (assist: Josh Laurent)
- 50′GoalKayne Ramsay (assist: Lloyd Jones)
- 57′GoalLargie Ramazani (assist: Igor Julio)
- 62′Yellow cardConor Coventry
- 66′Yellow cardIgor Julio
- 71′SubstitutionArmando Broja on, Jamie Vardy off
- 71′SubstitutionMarcus Edwards on, Jacob Bruun Larsen off
- 74′SubstitutionMicah Mbick on, Miles Leaburn off
- 74′SubstitutionHarvey Knibbs on, Dan McNamara off
- 75′SubstitutionIvan Mesik on, Amari Bell off
- 75′SubstitutionCharlie Kelman on, Oliver Skipp off
- 80′SubstitutionAndreas Hountondji on, Largie Ramazani off
- 86′SubstitutionMillenic Alli on, Tyreece Campbell off
- 90′SubstitutionHjalmar Ekdal on, Anel Ahmedhodzic off
- 90+4′Yellow cardMax Alleyne
- 90+6′GoalIvan Mesik (assist: Harvey Knibbs)
Match statistics
BurnleyCharlton
46Possession54
1.13Expected goals (xG)2.14
17Total shots7
3Shots on target4
5Corners7
4Fouls12
1Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
2Saves1
76Pass accuracy (%)81
Top rated players
| 7.7 | L. Ramazani · Burnley | 1 goal |
| 7.5 | I. Mesik · Charlton | 1 goal |
| 7.3 | K. Ramsay · Charlton | 1 goal |
| 7.3 | J. Bruun Larsen · Burnley | 1 goal |
| 7.2 | L. Jones · Charlton | 1 assist |
| 7.0 | M. Edwards · Burnley |
Burnley vs Charlton lineups
BurnleyFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: N. Hayen
| 37 | G. Coudert | GK |
| 2 | K. Walker | DF |
| 15 | A. Ahmedhodzic | DF |
| 44 | Igor | DF |
| 23 | Lucas Pires | DF |
| 3 | Max Alleyne | MF |
| 5 | R. Hatate | MF |
| 19 | L. Ramazani | MF |
| 29 | J. Laurent | MF |
| 7 | J. Bruun Larsen | MF |
| 9 | J. Vardy | FW |
| 1 | M. Weiss | GK |
| 8 | U. Raghouber | MF |
| 22 | O. Sonne | DF |
| 14 | C. Roberts | DF |
| 27 | A. Broja | FW |
| 30 | L. Castell | FW |
| 10 | M. Edwards | FW |
| 18 | H. Ekdal | DF |
| 17 | A. Hountondji | FW |
CharltonFormation 4-2-3-1Coach: N. Jones
| 13 | A. Okonkwo | GK |
| 2 | K. Ramsay | DF |
| 5 | L. Jones | DF |
| 12 | Billy Dawson Koumetio | DF |
| 17 | A. Bell | DF |
| 34 | O. Skipp | MF |
| 6 | C. Coventry | MF |
| 20 | D. McNamara | MF |
| 9 | K. Ahearne-Grant | MF |
| 7 | T. Campbell | MF |
| 11 | M. Leaburn | FW |
| 18 | I. Mesik | DF |
| 33 | Micah Mbick | FW |
| 25 | W. Mannion | GK |
| 8 | H. Knibbs | MF |
| 14 | S. Carey | MF |
| 44 | Tyler Bindon | DF |
| 19 | M. Alli | FW |
| 32 | A. Mwamba | DF |
| 23 | C. Kelman | FW |
Burnley vs Charlton injuries and suspensions
Burnley- E. AgyeiOut · Muscle Injury
- A. BarnesOut · Muscle Injury
- J. BeyerOut · Hamstring Injury
- B. HumphreysOut · Muscle Injury
- H. MejbriOut · Hamstring Injury
- A. RamseyOut · Hamstring Injury
- J. BanelDoubtful · Muscle Injury
- J. CullenDoubtful · Knee Injury
Charlton- N. ChalobahOut · Muscle Injury
- M. GoddenOut · Muscle Injury
- C. SichenjeOut · Knee Injury
Burnley and Charlton recent form
BurnleyWDLDL| 10/10/2026 | @ Watford | 4–0 |
| 19/09/2026 | Derby | 1–1 |
| 12/09/2026 | @ Swansea | 1–3 |
| 08/09/2026 | @ Wrexham | 1–1 |
| 05/09/2026 | Bristol City | 1–2 |
CharltonDLDDL| 10/10/2026 | Bristol City | 1–1 |
| 19/09/2026 | @ Cardiff | 1–3 |
| 12/09/2026 | Portsmouth | 0–0 |
| 09/09/2026 | QPR | 0–0 |
| 05/09/2026 | @ Stoke City | 0–4 |
Burnley vs Charlton head to head
Last 6 meetings: Burnley won 5, drew 0, lost 1. Goals: 14–1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07/05/2016 | Charlton | 0–3 | Burnley |
| 19/12/2015 | Burnley | 4–0 | Charlton |
| 22/03/2014 | Charlton | 0–3 | Burnley |
| 28/09/2013 | Burnley | 3–0 | Charlton |
| 02/03/2013 | Charlton | 0–1 | Burnley |
| 17/11/2012 | Burnley | 0–1 | Charlton |
Match information
- Referee
- Anthony Backhouse
- Venue
- Turf Moor, Burnley
- Round
- 10