English Sky Bet Championship

Burnley vs Middlesbrough prediction

1 – 1

Full-time

Match summary

Burnley vs Middlesbrough (English Sky Bet Championship), 03/09/2026, finished 1-1: a draw. Before the match Jarvis gave Burnley 33%, the draw 27% and Middlesbrough 41%; the actual result had a 27% chance, and the score Jarvis predicted was 1-2. The match had 2 goals; Jarvis expected 3.0.

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Burnley

33%

Draw

27%

Middlesbrough

41%

Actual result: Burnley 1 – 1 Middlesbrough · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 27%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Burnley, negative favours Middlesbrough) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Burnley - Middlesbrough)-0.19

Expected total goals2.99

Expected goals Burnley / Middlesbrough1.40 / 1.59

Both teams to score (yes / no)61.3% / 38.7%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 81.2%

Over 2.5 goals 57.5%

Over 3.5 goals 35.1%

First half

First-half result (Burnley / draw / Middlesbrough)26.6% / 41.7% / 31.7%

A goal in the first half72.7%

Two or more in the first half40.3%

Half-time then full-time

Middlesbrough lead at half-time then Middlesbrough win24.7%

Burnley lead at half-time then Burnley win19.3%

Level at half-time then draw15.7%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Burnley's side

Burnley −2.010.5%

Burnley −1.7512.9%

Burnley −1.515.4%

Burnley −1.2519.7%

Burnley −1.024.0%

Burnley −0.7528.3%

Burnley −0.532.6%

Burnley −0.2539.2%

Burnley draw no bet (0.0)45.9%

Burnley +0.2552.6%

Burnley +0.559.3%

Burnley +0.7564.2%

Burnley +1.069.1%

Burnley +1.578.9%

Burnley +2.085.2%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Burnley win3.07

Draw3.75

Middlesbrough win2.45

Over 2.51.74

Under 2.52.35

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Burnley wins by more than 1 goals15%

Middlesbrough wins by more than 1 goals21%

Corners

Expected total corners10.2

6.5+ corners in the match44%

Cards

Expected total cards2.9

2.5+ cards in the match56%

Match summary

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match