Dutch Eredivisie

Cambuur Leeuwarden vs NEC Nijmegen prediction

Cambuur Leeuwarden

3 – 0

Full-time

NEC Nijmegen

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Cambuur Leeuwarden

19%

Draw

21%

NEC Nijmegen

60%

Actual result: Cambuur Leeuwarden 3 – 0 NEC Nijmegen · Cambuur Leeuwarden winJarvis gave this outcome: 19%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Cambuur Leeuwarden, negative favours NEC Nijmegen) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Cambuur Leeuwarden - NEC Nijmegen)-1.04

Expected total goals3.46

Expected goals Cambuur Leeuwarden / NEC Nijmegen1.21 / 2.25

Both teams to score (yes / no)63.7% / 36.3%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 86.9%

Over 2.5 goals 67.2%

Over 3.5 goals 45.4%

First half

First-half result (Cambuur Leeuwarden / draw / NEC Nijmegen)18.2% / 36.9% / 44.9%

A goal in the first half77.7%

Two or more in the first half47.3%

Half-time then full-time

NEC Nijmegen lead at half-time then NEC Nijmegen win39.2%

Level at half-time then NEC Nijmegen win18.0%

Level at half-time then draw12.1%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Cambuur Leeuwarden's side

Cambuur Leeuwarden −2.05.0%

Cambuur Leeuwarden −1.756.3%

Cambuur Leeuwarden −1.57.6%

Cambuur Leeuwarden −1.2510.4%

Cambuur Leeuwarden −1.013.1%

Cambuur Leeuwarden −0.7515.9%

Cambuur Leeuwarden −0.518.7%

Cambuur Leeuwarden −0.2524.0%

Cambuur Leeuwarden draw no bet (0.0)29.4%

Cambuur Leeuwarden +0.2534.8%

Cambuur Leeuwarden +0.540.2%

Cambuur Leeuwarden +0.7545.5%

Cambuur Leeuwarden +1.050.8%

Cambuur Leeuwarden +1.561.4%

Cambuur Leeuwarden +2.070.5%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Cambuur Leeuwarden win5.36

Draw4.65

NEC Nijmegen win1.67

Over 2.51.49

Under 2.53.04

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Cambuur Leeuwarden wins by more than 1 goals8%

NEC Nijmegen wins by more than 1 goals39%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match