Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Cardiff
45%
Draw
28%
Stoke
27%
Actual result: Cardiff 1 – 1 Stoke · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 28%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Cardiff, negative favours Stoke) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Cardiff - Stoke)+0.42
Expected total goals2.87
Expected goals Cardiff / Stoke1.64 / 1.22
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.6% / 41.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.7%
Over 2.5 goals 54.6%
Over 3.5 goals 32.3%
First half
First-half result (Cardiff / draw / Stoke)34.2% / 43.3% / 22.5%
A goal in the first half70.8%
Two or more in the first half38.6%
Half-time then full-time
Cardiff lead at half-time then Cardiff win28.1%
Level at half-time then draw16.9%
Level at half-time then Cardiff win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Cardiff's side
Cardiff −2.017.6%
Cardiff −1.7521.1%
Cardiff −1.524.7%
Cardiff −1.2529.9%
Cardiff −1.035.1%
Cardiff −0.7540.3%
Cardiff −0.545.5%
Cardiff −0.2552.4%
Cardiff draw no bet (0.0)59.4%
Cardiff +0.2566.3%
Cardiff +0.573.2%
Cardiff +0.7577.0%
Cardiff +1.080.8%
Cardiff +1.588.3%
Cardiff +2.092.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Cardiff win2.20
Draw3.60
Stoke win3.74
Over 2.51.83
Under 2.52.20
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Cardiff wins by more than 1 goals25%
Stoke wins by more than 1 goals12%