Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Casa Pia
6%
Draw
12%
Porto
82%
Actual result: Casa Pia 1 – 4 Porto · Porto winJarvis gave this outcome: 82% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Casa Pia, negative favours Porto) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Casa Pia - Porto)-2.05
Expected total goals3.08
Expected goals Casa Pia / Porto0.51 / 2.56
Both teams to score (yes / no)36.4% / 63.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 goals 59.4%
Over 3.5 goals 37.0%
First half
First-half result (Casa Pia / draw / Porto)8.2% / 30.6% / 61.2%
A goal in the first half75.8%
Two or more in the first half39.5%
Half-time then full-time
Porto lead at half-time then Porto win58.3%
Level at half-time then Porto win20.5%
Level at half-time then draw7.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Casa Pia's side
Casa Pia −2.00.6%
Casa Pia −1.750.9%
Casa Pia −1.51.1%
Casa Pia −1.252.4%
Casa Pia −1.03.6%
Casa Pia −0.754.9%
Casa Pia −0.56.1%
Casa Pia −0.259.0%
Casa Pia draw no bet (0.0)11.9%
Casa Pia +0.2514.8%
Casa Pia +0.517.7%
Casa Pia +0.7523.3%
Casa Pia +1.028.8%
Casa Pia +1.539.9%
Casa Pia +2.051.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Casa Pia win16.27
Draw8.66
Porto win1.21
Over 2.51.68
Under 2.52.46
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Casa Pia wins by more than 1 goals1%
Porto wins by more than 1 goals60%