Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Celtic
57%
Draw
24%
Ferencvaros
19%
Actual result: Celtic 1 – 3 Ferencvaros · Ferencvaros winJarvis gave this outcome: 19%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Celtic, negative favours Ferencvaros) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Celtic - Ferencvaros)+0.90
Expected total goals3.12
Expected goals Celtic / Ferencvaros2.01 / 1.11
Both teams to score (yes / no)59.2% / 40.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.9%
Over 2.5 goals 60.2%
Over 3.5 goals 37.9%
First half
First-half result (Celtic / draw / Ferencvaros)42.2% / 39.6% / 18.1%
A goal in the first half74.1%
Two or more in the first half42.2%
Half-time then full-time
Celtic lead at half-time then Celtic win36.7%
Level at half-time then Celtic win18.2%
Level at half-time then draw13.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Celtic's side
Celtic −2.026.1%
Celtic −1.7530.5%
Celtic −1.534.9%
Celtic −1.2540.5%
Celtic −1.046.0%
Celtic −0.7551.5%
Celtic −0.557.0%
Celtic −0.2562.9%
Celtic draw no bet (0.0)68.8%
Celtic +0.2574.8%
Celtic +0.580.7%
Celtic +0.7583.6%
Celtic +1.086.5%
Celtic +1.592.4%
Celtic +2.095.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Celtic win1.75
Draw4.22
Ferencvaros win5.18
Over 2.51.66
Under 2.52.52
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Celtic wins by more than 1 goals35%
Ferencvaros wins by more than 1 goals8%
Corners
Expected total corners10.3
6.5+ corners in the match45%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match41%