Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Celtic
43%
Draw
27%
Rangers
30%
Actual result: Celtic 0 – 1 Rangers · Rangers winJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Celtic, negative favours Rangers) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Celtic - Rangers)+0.28
Expected total goals3.02
Expected goals Celtic / Rangers1.65 / 1.37
Both teams to score (yes / no)61.8% / 38.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.9%
Over 2.5 goals 58.1%
Over 3.5 goals 35.7%
First half
First-half result (Celtic / draw / Rangers)32.8% / 42.1% / 25.1%
A goal in the first half72.7%
Two or more in the first half41.0%
Half-time then full-time
Celtic lead at half-time then Celtic win26.1%
Rangers lead at half-time then Rangers win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw16.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Celtic's side
Celtic −2.016.2%
Celtic −1.7519.5%
Celtic −1.522.8%
Celtic −1.2527.8%
Celtic −1.032.7%
Celtic −0.7537.7%
Celtic −0.542.6%
Celtic −0.2549.4%
Celtic draw no bet (0.0)56.1%
Celtic +0.2562.9%
Celtic +0.569.6%
Celtic +0.7573.7%
Celtic +1.077.7%
Celtic +1.585.8%
Celtic +2.090.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Celtic win2.35
Draw3.70
Rangers win3.29
Over 2.51.72
Under 2.52.39
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Celtic wins by more than 1 goals23%
Rangers wins by more than 1 goals14%
Corners
Expected total corners10.7
6.5+ corners in the match51%
Cards
Expected total cards4.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%