Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Charlton
27%
Draw
30%
QPR
43%
Actual result: Charlton 0 – 0 QPR · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 30%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Charlton, negative favours QPR) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Charlton - QPR)-0.34
Expected total goals2.46
Expected goals Charlton / QPR1.06 / 1.40
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.0% / 49.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 72.2%
Over 2.5 goals 44.7%
Over 3.5 goals 23.4%
First half
First-half result (Charlton / draw / QPR)21.9% / 46.4% / 31.8%
A goal in the first half65.7%
Two or more in the first half31.7%
Half-time then full-time
QPR lead at half-time then QPR win26.0%
Level at half-time then draw19.4%
Level at half-time then QPR win16.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Charlton's side
Charlton −2.07.0%
Charlton −1.758.9%
Charlton −1.510.9%
Charlton −1.2514.9%
Charlton −1.018.9%
Charlton −0.7522.9%
Charlton −0.526.9%
Charlton −0.2534.4%
Charlton draw no bet (0.0)41.9%
Charlton +0.2549.5%
Charlton +0.557.0%
Charlton +0.7562.4%
Charlton +1.067.8%
Charlton +1.578.6%
Charlton +2.085.3%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Charlton win3.72
Draw3.32
QPR win2.32
Over 2.52.24
Under 2.51.81
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Charlton wins by more than 1 goals11%
QPR wins by more than 1 goals21%