Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Chelsea
79%
Draw
14%
Hull
7%
Actual result: Chelsea 2 – 2 Hull · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 14%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Chelsea, negative favours Hull) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Chelsea - Hull)+2.02
Expected total goals3.49
Expected goals Chelsea / Hull2.76 / 0.74
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.1% / 50.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 86.6%
Over 2.5 goals 67.8%
Over 3.5 goals 46.2%
First half
First-half result (Chelsea / draw / Hull)59.5% / 31.0% / 9.5%
A goal in the first half78.9%
Two or more in the first half47.0%
Half-time then full-time
Chelsea lead at half-time then Chelsea win56.3%
Level at half-time then Chelsea win20.1%
Level at half-time then draw8.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Chelsea's side
Chelsea −2.048.3%
Chelsea −1.7553.7%
Chelsea −1.559.1%
Chelsea −1.2564.1%
Chelsea −1.069.2%
Chelsea −0.7574.2%
Chelsea −0.579.2%
Chelsea −0.2582.6%
Chelsea draw no bet (0.0)86.0%
Chelsea +0.2589.5%
Chelsea +0.592.9%
Chelsea +0.7594.2%
Chelsea +1.095.5%
Chelsea +1.598.1%
Chelsea +2.098.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Chelsea win1.26
Draw7.29
Hull win14.07
Over 2.51.48
Under 2.53.11
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Chelsea wins by more than 1 goals59%
Hull wins by more than 1 goals2%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards3.4
2.5+ cards in the match44%