Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Chelsea
60%
Draw
23%
Leeds
17%
Actual result: Chelsea 6 – 3 Leeds · Chelsea winJarvis gave this outcome: 60% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Chelsea, negative favours Leeds) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Chelsea - Leeds)+1.01
Expected total goals3.00
Expected goals Chelsea / Leeds2.01 / 1.00
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.7% / 44.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 81.2%
Over 2.5 goals 57.7%
Over 3.5 goals 35.3%
First half
First-half result (Chelsea / draw / Leeds)43.7% / 39.8% / 16.4%
A goal in the first half72.9%
Two or more in the first half40.3%
Half-time then full-time
Chelsea lead at half-time then Chelsea win38.6%
Level at half-time then Chelsea win19.0%
Level at half-time then draw14.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Chelsea's side
Chelsea −2.027.6%
Chelsea −1.7532.3%
Chelsea −1.536.9%
Chelsea −1.2542.6%
Chelsea −1.048.3%
Chelsea −0.7554.0%
Chelsea −0.559.6%
Chelsea −0.2565.5%
Chelsea draw no bet (0.0)71.3%
Chelsea +0.2577.1%
Chelsea +0.583.0%
Chelsea +0.7585.7%
Chelsea +1.088.3%
Chelsea +1.593.7%
Chelsea +2.096.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Chelsea win1.68
Draw4.29
Leeds win5.87
Over 2.51.73
Under 2.52.37
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Chelsea wins by more than 1 goals37%
Leeds wins by more than 1 goals6%
Corners
Expected total corners10.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match50%