Portuguese Primeira Liga

Club Football Estrela vs Braga prediction

Club Football Estrela

2 – 1

Full-time

Braga

Outcome probability

Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.

Full-time

Club Football Estrela

15%

Draw

25%

Braga

60%

Actual result: Club Football Estrela 2 – 1 Braga · Club Football Estrela winJarvis gave this outcome: 15%

Jarvis model

Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Club Football Estrela, negative favours Braga) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.

Supremacy (Club Football Estrela - Braga)-1.00

Expected total goals2.52

Expected goals Club Football Estrela / Braga0.76 / 1.76

Both teams to score (yes / no)44.9% / 55.1%

Over / Under (total goals)

Over 1.5 goals 72.5%

Over 2.5 goals 46.1%

Over 3.5 goals 24.6%

First half

First-half result (Club Football Estrela / draw / Braga)14.2% / 42.9% / 42.9%

A goal in the first half67.1%

Two or more in the first half32.0%

Half-time then full-time

Braga lead at half-time then Braga win38.4%

Level at half-time then Braga win20.3%

Level at half-time then draw16.2%

Full Asian handicap (model probability)

Lines shown from Club Football Estrela's side

Club Football Estrela −2.02.8%

Club Football Estrela −1.753.6%

Club Football Estrela −1.54.5%

Club Football Estrela −1.257.1%

Club Football Estrela −1.09.7%

Club Football Estrela −0.7512.3%

Club Football Estrela −0.514.9%

Club Football Estrela −0.2521.1%

Club Football Estrela draw no bet (0.0)27.3%

Club Football Estrela +0.2533.5%

Club Football Estrela +0.539.6%

Club Football Estrela +0.7545.9%

Club Football Estrela +1.052.2%

Club Football Estrela +1.564.8%

Club Football Estrela +2.074.3%

Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.

Market-standard price (decimal)

Club Football Estrela win6.70

Draw4.05

Braga win1.66

Over 2.52.17

Under 2.51.85

This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.

Goal margin

Club Football Estrela wins by more than 1 goals5%

Braga wins by more than 1 goals35%

Outcome probability

Probability trajectory · full match