Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Columbus
54%
Draw
23%
New York Red Bulls
23%
Actual result: Columbus 0 – 1 New York Red Bulls · New York Red Bulls winJarvis gave this outcome: 23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Columbus, negative favours New York Red Bulls) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Columbus - New York Red Bulls)+0.77
Expected total goals3.63
Expected goals Columbus / New York Red Bulls2.20 / 1.43
Both teams to score (yes / no)69.0% / 31.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.0%
Over 2.5 goals 70.3%
Over 3.5 goals 49.2%
First half
First-half result (Columbus / draw / New York Red Bulls)40.8% / 37.9% / 21.3%
A goal in the first half78.6%
Two or more in the first half50.5%
Half-time then full-time
Columbus lead at half-time then Columbus win34.5%
Level at half-time then Columbus win16.7%
New York Red Bulls lead at half-time then New York Red Bulls win13.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Columbus's side
Columbus −2.025.5%
Columbus −1.7529.6%
Columbus −1.533.7%
Columbus −1.2538.7%
Columbus −1.043.7%
Columbus −0.7548.7%
Columbus −0.553.7%
Columbus −0.2559.4%
Columbus draw no bet (0.0)65.2%
Columbus +0.2570.9%
Columbus +0.576.6%
Columbus +0.7579.8%
Columbus +1.082.9%
Columbus +1.589.2%
Columbus +2.092.7%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Columbus win1.86
Draw4.37
New York Red Bulls win4.27
Over 2.51.42
Under 2.53.37
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Columbus wins by more than 1 goals34%
New York Red Bulls wins by more than 1 goals11%