Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Cordoba
50%
Draw
28%
Tenerife
22%
Actual result: Cordoba 3 – 2 Tenerife · Cordoba winJarvis gave this outcome: 50% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Cordoba, negative favours Tenerife) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Cordoba - Tenerife)+0.61
Expected total goals2.68
Expected goals Cordoba / Tenerife1.64 / 1.03
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.6% / 46.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.4%
Over 2.5 goals 50.0%
Over 3.5 goals 28.0%
First half
First-half result (Cordoba / draw / Tenerife)36.6% / 44.2% / 19.2%
A goal in the first half68.5%
Two or more in the first half35.4%
Half-time then full-time
Cordoba lead at half-time then Cordoba win31.0%
Level at half-time then Cordoba win17.7%
Level at half-time then draw17.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Cordoba's side
Cordoba −2.019.7%
Cordoba −1.7523.6%
Cordoba −1.527.6%
Cordoba −1.2533.1%
Cordoba −1.038.7%
Cordoba −0.7544.3%
Cordoba −0.549.9%
Cordoba −0.2556.9%
Cordoba draw no bet (0.0)63.9%
Cordoba +0.2570.9%
Cordoba +0.577.9%
Cordoba +0.7581.2%
Cordoba +1.084.6%
Cordoba +1.591.3%
Cordoba +2.094.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Cordoba win2.00
Draw3.58
Tenerife win4.52
Over 2.52.00
Under 2.52.00
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Cordoba wins by more than 1 goals28%
Tenerife wins by more than 1 goals9%