Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Coventry
27%
Draw
26%
Aston Villa
48%
Actual result: Coventry 1 – 3 Aston Villa · Aston Villa winJarvis gave this outcome: 48% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Coventry, negative favours Aston Villa) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Coventry - Aston Villa)-0.51
Expected total goals3.19
Expected goals Coventry / Aston Villa1.34 / 1.85
Both teams to score (yes / no)63.6% / 36.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.1%
Over 2.5 goals 61.7%
Over 3.5 goals 39.4%
First half
First-half result (Coventry / draw / Aston Villa)22.9% / 40.6% / 36.5%
A goal in the first half74.5%
Two or more in the first half43.6%
Half-time then full-time
Aston Villa lead at half-time then Aston Villa win30.0%
Level at half-time then Aston Villa win16.0%
Coventry lead at half-time then Coventry win15.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Coventry's side
Coventry −2.08.1%
Coventry −1.7510.1%
Coventry −1.512.0%
Coventry −1.2515.7%
Coventry −1.019.3%
Coventry −0.7522.9%
Coventry −0.526.5%
Coventry −0.2532.9%
Coventry draw no bet (0.0)39.3%
Coventry +0.2545.6%
Coventry +0.552.0%
Coventry +0.7557.1%
Coventry +1.062.3%
Coventry +1.572.5%
Coventry +2.080.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Coventry win3.77
Draw3.92
Aston Villa win2.08
Over 2.51.62
Under 2.52.61
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Coventry wins by more than 1 goals12%
Aston Villa wins by more than 1 goals27%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards12.0
2.5+ cards in the match95%