Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Criciuma
47%
Draw
31%
Operario PR
22%
Actual result: Criciuma 0 – 2 Operario PR · Operario PR winJarvis gave this outcome: 22%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Criciuma, negative favours Operario PR) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Criciuma - Operario PR)+0.50
Expected total goals2.15
Expected goals Criciuma / Operario PR1.32 / 0.83
Both teams to score (yes / no)42.6% / 57.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 64.6%
Over 2.5 goals 36.3%
Over 3.5 goals 17.0%
First half
First-half result (Criciuma / draw / Operario PR)33.2% / 48.8% / 18.0%
A goal in the first half61.0%
Two or more in the first half26.1%
Half-time then full-time
Criciuma lead at half-time then Criciuma win28.2%
Level at half-time then draw21.5%
Level at half-time then Criciuma win17.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Criciuma's side
Criciuma −2.015.5%
Criciuma −1.7519.1%
Criciuma −1.522.7%
Criciuma −1.2528.8%
Criciuma −1.034.8%
Criciuma −0.7540.8%
Criciuma −0.546.9%
Criciuma −0.2554.7%
Criciuma draw no bet (0.0)62.5%
Criciuma +0.2570.2%
Criciuma +0.578.0%
Criciuma +0.7581.7%
Criciuma +1.085.3%
Criciuma +1.592.6%
Criciuma +2.095.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Criciuma win2.13
Draw3.21
Operario PR win4.56
Over 2.52.76
Under 2.51.57
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Criciuma wins by more than 1 goals23%
Operario PR wins by more than 1 goals7%