Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Croatia
20%
Draw
25%
England
55%
Actual result: Croatia 0 – 7 England · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 55% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Croatia, negative favours England) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Croatia - England)-0.82
Expected total goals2.90
Expected goals Croatia / England1.04 / 1.86
Both teams to score (yes / no)55.8% / 44.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.8%
Over 2.5 goals 55.4%
Over 3.5 goals 33.1%
First half
First-half result (Croatia / draw / England)18.0% / 41.3% / 40.7%
A goal in the first half71.7%
Two or more in the first half38.7%
Half-time then full-time
England lead at half-time then England win35.2%
Level at half-time then England win18.4%
Level at half-time then draw15.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Croatia's side
Croatia −2.04.8%
Croatia −1.756.2%
Croatia −1.57.5%
Croatia −1.2510.5%
Croatia −1.013.6%
Croatia −0.7516.6%
Croatia −0.519.6%
Croatia −0.2525.8%
Croatia draw no bet (0.0)32.1%
Croatia +0.2538.3%
Croatia +0.544.6%
Croatia +0.7550.2%
Croatia +1.055.9%
Croatia +1.567.2%
Croatia +2.075.9%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Croatia win5.10
Draw4.00
England win1.80
Over 2.51.80
Under 2.52.24
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Croatia wins by more than 1 goals8%
England wins by more than 1 goals33%
Corners
Expected total corners8.9
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards3.1
2.5+ cards in the match60%