Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Croatia
9%
Draw
14%
Spain
77%
Actual result: Croatia 1 – 2 Spain · Spain winJarvis gave this outcome: 77% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Croatia, negative favours Spain) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Croatia - Spain)-1.80
Expected total goals3.24
Expected goals Croatia / Spain0.72 / 2.52
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.7% / 53.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 82.8%
Over 2.5 goals 62.8%
Over 3.5 goals 40.6%
First half
First-half result (Croatia / draw / Spain)11.2% / 31.4% / 57.4%
A goal in the first half77.4%
Two or more in the first half42.1%
Half-time then full-time
Spain lead at half-time then Spain win53.5%
Level at half-time then Spain win19.7%
Level at half-time then draw8.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Croatia's side
Croatia −2.01.3%
Croatia −1.751.8%
Croatia −1.52.2%
Croatia −1.254.0%
Croatia −1.05.7%
Croatia −0.757.4%
Croatia −0.59.1%
Croatia −0.2512.6%
Croatia draw no bet (0.0)16.0%
Croatia +0.2519.5%
Croatia +0.523.0%
Croatia +0.7528.6%
Croatia +1.034.3%
Croatia +1.545.5%
Croatia +2.056.5%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Croatia win11.01
Draw7.18
Spain win1.30
Over 2.51.59
Under 2.52.69
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Croatia wins by more than 1 goals2%
Spain wins by more than 1 goals54%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%
Cards
Expected total cards2.9
2.5+ cards in the match55%