Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Crystal Palace
50%
Draw
26%
Ipswich
23%
Actual result: Crystal Palace 2 – 3 Ipswich · Ipswich winJarvis gave this outcome: 23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Crystal Palace, negative favours Ipswich) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Crystal Palace - Ipswich)+0.59
Expected total goals2.65
Expected goals Crystal Palace / Ipswich1.62 / 1.03
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.4% / 47.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.1%
Over 2.5 goals 49.4%
Over 3.5 goals 27.5%
First half
First-half result (Crystal Palace / draw / Ipswich)36.9% / 43.0% / 20.1%
A goal in the first half68.9%
Two or more in the first half34.2%
Half-time then full-time
Crystal Palace lead at half-time then Crystal Palace win31.0%
Level at half-time then Crystal Palace win17.4%
Level at half-time then draw16.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Crystal Palace's side
Crystal Palace −2.019.3%
Crystal Palace −1.7523.2%
Crystal Palace −1.527.1%
Crystal Palace −1.2532.9%
Crystal Palace −1.038.7%
Crystal Palace −0.7544.5%
Crystal Palace −0.550.3%
Crystal Palace −0.2556.9%
Crystal Palace draw no bet (0.0)63.5%
Crystal Palace +0.2570.2%
Crystal Palace +0.576.8%
Crystal Palace +0.7580.4%
Crystal Palace +1.084.0%
Crystal Palace +1.591.2%
Crystal Palace +2.094.4%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Crystal Palace win1.99
Draw3.78
Ipswich win4.31
Over 2.52.02
Under 2.51.98
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Crystal Palace wins by more than 1 goals27%
Ipswich wins by more than 1 goals9%
Corners
Expected total corners9.9
6.5+ corners in the match52%
Cards
Expected total cards3.3
2.5+ cards in the match42%