Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Crystal Palace
73%
Draw
17%
Lech Poznan
10%
Actual result: Crystal Palace 4 – 0 Lech Poznan · Crystal Palace winJarvis gave this outcome: 73% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Crystal Palace, negative favours Lech Poznan) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Crystal Palace - Lech Poznan)+1.65
Expected total goals3.29
Expected goals Crystal Palace / Lech Poznan2.47 / 0.82
Both teams to score (yes / no)51.6% / 48.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 84.4%
Over 2.5 goals 63.8%
Over 3.5 goals 41.7%
First half
First-half result (Crystal Palace / draw / Lech Poznan)54.2% / 34.1% / 11.7%
A goal in the first half76.7%
Two or more in the first half44.1%
Half-time then full-time
Crystal Palace lead at half-time then Crystal Palace win50.3%
Level at half-time then Crystal Palace win20.2%
Level at half-time then draw9.9%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Crystal Palace's side
Crystal Palace −2.040.7%
Crystal Palace −1.7546.0%
Crystal Palace −1.551.3%
Crystal Palace −1.2556.8%
Crystal Palace −1.062.2%
Crystal Palace −0.7567.7%
Crystal Palace −0.573.2%
Crystal Palace −0.2577.4%
Crystal Palace draw no bet (0.0)81.6%
Crystal Palace +0.2585.8%
Crystal Palace +0.590.0%
Crystal Palace +0.7591.8%
Crystal Palace +1.093.5%
Crystal Palace +1.597.0%
Crystal Palace +2.098.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Crystal Palace win1.37
Draw5.92
Lech Poznan win10.04
Over 2.51.57
Under 2.52.76
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Crystal Palace wins by more than 1 goals51%
Lech Poznan wins by more than 1 goals3%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards2.7
2.5+ cards in the match51%