English Football League Cup
Crystal Palace vs Middlesbrough prediction
3 – 0
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Crystal Palace
49%
Draw
28%
Middlesbrough
23%
Actual result: Crystal Palace 3 – 0 Middlesbrough · Crystal Palace winJarvis gave this outcome: 49% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Crystal Palace, negative favours Middlesbrough) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Crystal Palace - Middlesbrough)+0.58
Expected total goals2.70
Expected goals Crystal Palace / Middlesbrough1.64 / 1.06
Both teams to score (yes / no)54.4% / 45.6%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.8%
Over 2.5 goals 50.5%
Over 3.5 goals 28.5%
First half
First-half result (Crystal Palace / draw / Middlesbrough)36.0% / 44.3% / 19.7%
A goal in the first half68.7%
Two or more in the first half35.8%
Half-time then full-time
Crystal Palace lead at half-time then Crystal Palace win30.5%
Level at half-time then draw17.7%
Level at half-time then Crystal Palace win17.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Crystal Palace's side
Crystal Palace −2.019.2%
Crystal Palace −1.7523.1%
Crystal Palace −1.527.0%
Crystal Palace −1.2532.5%
Crystal Palace −1.038.0%
Crystal Palace −0.7543.5%
Crystal Palace −0.549.0%
Crystal Palace −0.2556.1%
Crystal Palace draw no bet (0.0)63.1%
Crystal Palace +0.2570.2%
Crystal Palace +0.577.2%
Crystal Palace +0.7580.6%
Crystal Palace +1.084.0%
Crystal Palace +1.590.9%
Crystal Palace +2.094.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Crystal Palace win2.04
Draw3.55
Middlesbrough win4.39
Over 2.51.98
Under 2.52.02
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Crystal Palace wins by more than 1 goals27%
Middlesbrough wins by more than 1 goals9%