Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Czech Republic
25%
Draw
28%
Croatia
47%
Actual result: Czech Republic 1 – 2 Croatia · Croatia winJarvis gave this outcome: 47% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Czech Republic, negative favours Croatia) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Czech Republic - Croatia)-0.48
Expected total goals2.60
Expected goals Czech Republic / Croatia1.06 / 1.54
Both teams to score (yes / no)52.7% / 47.3%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 74.7%
Over 2.5 goals 48.2%
Over 3.5 goals 26.4%
First half
First-half result (Czech Republic / draw / Croatia)20.9% / 44.5% / 34.6%
A goal in the first half67.8%
Two or more in the first half33.8%
Half-time then full-time
Croatia lead at half-time then Croatia win28.8%
Level at half-time then draw17.8%
Level at half-time then Croatia win16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Czech Republic's side
Czech Republic −2.06.3%
Czech Republic −1.758.1%
Czech Republic −1.59.8%
Czech Republic −1.2513.5%
Czech Republic −1.017.3%
Czech Republic −0.7521.0%
Czech Republic −0.524.7%
Czech Republic −0.2531.8%
Czech Republic draw no bet (0.0)38.9%
Czech Republic +0.2545.9%
Czech Republic +0.553.0%
Czech Republic +0.7558.6%
Czech Republic +1.064.1%
Czech Republic +1.575.3%
Czech Republic +2.082.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Czech Republic win4.04
Draw3.54
Croatia win2.13
Over 2.52.08
Under 2.51.93
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Czech Republic wins by more than 1 goals10%
Croatia wins by more than 1 goals25%
Corners
Expected total corners9.4
6.5+ corners in the match47%
Cards
Expected total cards2.8
2.5+ cards in the match53%