Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Denmark
68%
Draw
20%
Wales
12%
Actual result: Denmark 2 – 0 Wales · Denmark winJarvis gave this outcome: 68% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Denmark, negative favours Wales) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Denmark - Wales)+1.30
Expected total goals2.73
Expected goals Denmark / Wales2.01 / 0.72
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.6% / 55.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.9%
Over 2.5 goals 51.3%
Over 3.5 goals 29.2%
First half
First-half result (Denmark / draw / Wales)48.5% / 39.0% / 12.5%
A goal in the first half70.5%
Two or more in the first half35.0%
Half-time then full-time
Denmark lead at half-time then Denmark win44.3%
Level at half-time then Denmark win20.8%
Level at half-time then draw13.1%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Denmark's side
Denmark −2.032.2%
Denmark −1.7537.4%
Denmark −1.542.6%
Denmark −1.2548.8%
Denmark −1.055.1%
Denmark −0.7561.3%
Denmark −0.567.5%
Denmark −0.2572.6%
Denmark draw no bet (0.0)77.8%
Denmark +0.2582.9%
Denmark +0.588.0%
Denmark +0.7590.2%
Denmark +1.092.3%
Denmark +1.596.7%
Denmark +2.098.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Denmark win1.48
Draw4.88
Wales win8.33
Over 2.51.95
Under 2.52.05
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Denmark wins by more than 1 goals43%
Wales wins by more than 1 goals3%
Corners
Expected total corners9.5
6.5+ corners in the match48%
Cards
Expected total cards3.2
2.5+ cards in the match39%