Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Derby
25%
Draw
30%
West Brom
45%
Actual result: Derby 0 – 1 West Brom · West Brom winJarvis gave this outcome: 45% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Derby, negative favours West Brom) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Derby - West Brom)-0.42
Expected total goals2.44
Expected goals Derby / West Brom1.01 / 1.43
Both teams to score (yes / no)49.9% / 50.1%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 71.6%
Over 2.5 goals 44.0%
Over 3.5 goals 22.9%
First half
First-half result (Derby / draw / West Brom)20.6% / 46.4% / 33.0%
A goal in the first half65.4%
Two or more in the first half31.3%
Half-time then full-time
West Brom lead at half-time then West Brom win27.4%
Level at half-time then draw19.4%
Level at half-time then West Brom win16.8%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Derby's side
Derby −2.06.2%
Derby −1.758.0%
Derby −1.59.7%
Derby −1.2513.5%
Derby −1.017.3%
Derby −0.7521.1%
Derby −0.524.9%
Derby −0.2532.4%
Derby draw no bet (0.0)39.9%
Derby +0.2547.4%
Derby +0.554.8%
Derby +0.7560.4%
Derby +1.066.0%
Derby +1.577.1%
Derby +2.084.2%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Derby win4.01
Draw3.34
West Brom win2.21
Over 2.52.27
Under 2.51.79
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Derby wins by more than 1 goals10%
West Brom wins by more than 1 goals23%