Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Eldense
36%
Draw
34%
Oviedo
30%
Actual result: Eldense 4 – 1 Oviedo · Eldense winJarvis gave this outcome: 36% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Eldense, negative favours Oviedo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Eldense - Oviedo)+0.12
Expected total goals2.17
Expected goals Eldense / Oviedo1.14 / 1.02
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.8% / 54.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 65.9%
Over 2.5 goals 36.8%
Over 3.5 goals 17.4%
First half
First-half result (Eldense / draw / Oviedo)26.7% / 50.1% / 23.1%
A goal in the first half60.8%
Two or more in the first half27.0%
Half-time then full-time
Level at half-time then draw22.9%
Eldense lead at half-time then Eldense win21.3%
Oviedo lead at half-time then Oviedo win17.5%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Eldense's side
Eldense −2.010.5%
Eldense −1.7513.2%
Eldense −1.515.9%
Eldense −1.2521.0%
Eldense −1.026.0%
Eldense −0.7531.1%
Eldense −0.536.1%
Eldense −0.2544.6%
Eldense draw no bet (0.0)53.0%
Eldense +0.2561.4%
Eldense +0.569.9%
Eldense +0.7574.3%
Eldense +1.078.8%
Eldense +1.587.7%
Eldense +2.092.1%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Eldense win2.77
Draw2.96
Oviedo win3.32
Over 2.52.72
Under 2.51.58
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Eldense wins by more than 1 goals16%
Oviedo wins by more than 1 goals12%