Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Empoli
47%
Draw
31%
Arezzo
23%
Actual result: Empoli 0 – 1 Arezzo · Arezzo winJarvis gave this outcome: 23%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Empoli, negative favours Arezzo) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Empoli - Arezzo)+0.49
Expected total goals2.31
Expected goals Empoli / Arezzo1.40 / 0.91
Both teams to score (yes / no)46.8% / 53.2%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 69.0%
Over 2.5 goals 40.7%
Over 3.5 goals 20.3%
First half
First-half result (Empoli / draw / Arezzo)33.5% / 47.6% / 18.9%
A goal in the first half63.4%
Two or more in the first half29.2%
Half-time then full-time
Empoli lead at half-time then Empoli win28.3%
Level at half-time then draw20.5%
Level at half-time then Empoli win17.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Empoli's side
Empoli −2.016.2%
Empoli −1.7519.9%
Empoli −1.523.5%
Empoli −1.2529.3%
Empoli −1.035.1%
Empoli −0.7540.8%
Empoli −0.546.6%
Empoli −0.2554.3%
Empoli draw no bet (0.0)62.0%
Empoli +0.2569.6%
Empoli +0.577.3%
Empoli +0.7580.9%
Empoli +1.084.5%
Empoli +1.591.7%
Empoli +2.094.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Empoli win2.15
Draw3.25
Arezzo win4.41
Over 2.52.45
Under 2.51.69
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Empoli wins by more than 1 goals24%
Arezzo wins by more than 1 goals8%