Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
England
88%
Draw
8%
Czech Republic
4%
Actual result: England 3 – 0 Czech Republic · England winJarvis gave this outcome: 88% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours England, negative favours Czech Republic) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (England - Czech Republic)+2.65
Expected total goals3.78
Expected goals England / Czech Republic3.22 / 0.57
Both teams to score (yes / no)41.2% / 58.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 88.8%
Over 2.5 goals 72.8%
Over 3.5 goals 52.3%
First half
First-half result (England / draw / Czech Republic)68.7% / 24.4% / 6.9%
A goal in the first half82.4%
Two or more in the first half50.2%
Half-time then full-time
England lead at half-time then England win66.4%
Level at half-time then England win18.2%
Level at half-time then draw4.7%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from England's side
England −2.060.9%
England −1.7566.1%
England −1.571.3%
England −1.2575.5%
England −1.079.6%
England −0.7583.8%
England −0.588.0%
England −0.2590.0%
England draw no bet (0.0)92.0%
England +0.2594.0%
England +0.596.0%
England +0.7596.8%
England +1.097.6%
England +1.599.2%
England +2.099.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
England win1.14
Draw12.46
Czech Republic win25.01
Over 2.51.37
Under 2.53.68
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
England wins by more than 1 goals71%
Czech Republic wins by more than 1 goals1%
Corners
Expected total corners9.6
6.5+ corners in the match49%
Cards
Expected total cards2.5
2.5+ cards in the match45%