Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Estonia
16%
Draw
25%
Iceland
59%
Actual result: Estonia 0 – 0 Iceland · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 25%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Estonia, negative favours Iceland) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Estonia - Iceland)-0.92
Expected total goals2.45
Expected goals Estonia / Iceland0.76 / 1.69
Both teams to score (yes / no)44.0% / 56.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 70.7%
Over 2.5 goals 44.3%
Over 3.5 goals 23.2%
First half
First-half result (Estonia / draw / Iceland)15.0% / 43.2% / 41.8%
A goal in the first half66.4%
Two or more in the first half30.5%
Half-time then full-time
Iceland lead at half-time then Iceland win37.0%
Level at half-time then Iceland win20.0%
Level at half-time then draw16.4%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Estonia's side
Estonia −2.03.0%
Estonia −1.753.9%
Estonia −1.54.9%
Estonia −1.257.7%
Estonia −1.010.5%
Estonia −0.7513.4%
Estonia −0.516.2%
Estonia −0.2522.4%
Estonia draw no bet (0.0)28.7%
Estonia +0.2534.9%
Estonia +0.541.1%
Estonia +0.7547.5%
Estonia +1.053.9%
Estonia +1.566.8%
Estonia +2.076.0%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Estonia win6.16
Draw4.03
Iceland win1.70
Over 2.52.26
Under 2.51.80
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Estonia wins by more than 1 goals5%
Iceland wins by more than 1 goals33%
Corners
Expected total corners9.0
6.5+ corners in the match54%