Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Eyupspor
21%
Draw
27%
Goztepe
51%
Actual result: Eyupspor 0 – 4 Goztepe · Goztepe winJarvis gave this outcome: 51% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Eyupspor, negative favours Goztepe) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Eyupspor - Goztepe)-0.65
Expected total goals2.68
Expected goals Eyupspor / Goztepe1.01 / 1.67
Both teams to score (yes / no)53.2% / 46.8%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 76.3%
Over 2.5 goals 50.1%
Over 3.5 goals 28.1%
First half
First-half result (Eyupspor / draw / Goztepe)18.8% / 43.7% / 37.4%
A goal in the first half68.7%
Two or more in the first half35.3%
Half-time then full-time
Goztepe lead at half-time then Goztepe win31.9%
Level at half-time then Goztepe win17.9%
Level at half-time then draw17.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Eyupspor's side
Eyupspor −2.05.3%
Eyupspor −1.756.8%
Eyupspor −1.58.3%
Eyupspor −1.2511.6%
Eyupspor −1.014.9%
Eyupspor −0.7518.2%
Eyupspor −0.521.5%
Eyupspor −0.2528.3%
Eyupspor draw no bet (0.0)35.1%
Eyupspor +0.2542.0%
Eyupspor +0.548.8%
Eyupspor +0.7554.5%
Eyupspor +1.060.2%
Eyupspor +1.571.5%
Eyupspor +2.079.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Eyupspor win4.66
Draw3.66
Goztepe win1.95
Over 2.51.99
Under 2.52.01
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Eyupspor wins by more than 1 goals8%
Goztepe wins by more than 1 goals28%