Portuguese Primeira Liga
Famalicao vs Sporting Lisbon prediction
1 – 1
Full-timeOutcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
Famalicao
13%
Draw
21%
Sporting Lisbon
66%
Actual result: Famalicao 1 – 1 Sporting Lisbon · DrawJarvis gave this outcome: 21%
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours Famalicao, negative favours Sporting Lisbon) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (Famalicao - Sporting Lisbon)-1.25
Expected total goals2.72
Expected goals Famalicao / Sporting Lisbon0.74 / 1.98
Both teams to score (yes / no)45.1% / 54.9%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 75.7%
Over 2.5 goals 51.1%
Over 3.5 goals 29.0%
First half
First-half result (Famalicao / draw / Sporting Lisbon)13.1% / 39.1% / 47.8%
A goal in the first half70.4%
Two or more in the first half34.7%
Half-time then full-time
Sporting Lisbon lead at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win43.4%
Level at half-time then Sporting Lisbon win20.6%
Level at half-time then draw13.2%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from Famalicao's side
Famalicao −2.02.2%
Famalicao −1.752.9%
Famalicao −1.53.6%
Famalicao −1.255.9%
Famalicao −1.08.2%
Famalicao −0.7510.5%
Famalicao −0.512.8%
Famalicao −0.2518.0%
Famalicao draw no bet (0.0)23.1%
Famalicao +0.2528.3%
Famalicao +0.533.5%
Famalicao +0.7539.8%
Famalicao +1.046.0%
Famalicao +1.558.6%
Famalicao +2.068.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
Famalicao win7.83
Draw4.82
Sporting Lisbon win1.50
Over 2.51.96
Under 2.52.04
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
Famalicao wins by more than 1 goals4%
Sporting Lisbon wins by more than 1 goals41%