Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
FC Dallas
42%
Draw
28%
Los Angeles FC
31%
Actual result: FC Dallas 1 – 0 Los Angeles FC · FC Dallas winJarvis gave this outcome: 42% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Dallas, negative favours Los Angeles FC) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (FC Dallas - Los Angeles FC)+0.24
Expected total goals2.85
Expected goals FC Dallas / Los Angeles FC1.54 / 1.30
Both teams to score (yes / no)58.6% / 41.4%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 79.0%
Over 2.5 goals 54.1%
Over 3.5 goals 31.8%
First half
First-half result (FC Dallas / draw / Los Angeles FC)31.9% / 43.0% / 25.2%
A goal in the first half70.9%
Two or more in the first half37.9%
Half-time then full-time
FC Dallas lead at half-time then FC Dallas win25.2%
Los Angeles FC lead at half-time then Los Angeles FC win18.1%
Level at half-time then draw16.6%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from FC Dallas's side
FC Dallas −2.015.0%
FC Dallas −1.7518.2%
FC Dallas −1.521.4%
FC Dallas −1.2526.5%
FC Dallas −1.031.5%
FC Dallas −0.7536.6%
FC Dallas −0.541.6%
FC Dallas −0.2548.5%
FC Dallas draw no bet (0.0)55.4%
FC Dallas +0.2562.3%
FC Dallas +0.569.2%
FC Dallas +0.7573.4%
FC Dallas +1.077.6%
FC Dallas +1.586.0%
FC Dallas +2.090.6%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
FC Dallas win2.40
Draw3.63
Los Angeles FC win3.25
Over 2.51.85
Under 2.52.18
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
FC Dallas wins by more than 1 goals21%
Los Angeles FC wins by more than 1 goals14%