Outcome probability
Jarvis's PRE-match prediction (not a live probability). Compared with the real result below.
Full-time
FC Groningen
64%
Draw
21%
PEC Zwolle
16%
Actual result: FC Groningen 3 – 0 PEC Zwolle · FC Groningen winJarvis gave this outcome: 64% ✓
Jarvis model
Supremacy = expected goal difference (positive favours FC Groningen, negative favours PEC Zwolle) · Expected total goals = projected goals for the whole match · Both teams to score = chance both sides find the net.
Supremacy (FC Groningen - PEC Zwolle)+1.26
Expected total goals3.64
Expected goals FC Groningen / PEC Zwolle2.45 / 1.19
Both teams to score (yes / no)65.0% / 35.0%
Over / Under (total goals)
Over 1.5 goals 89.2%
Over 2.5 goals 70.5%
Over 3.5 goals 49.4%
First half
First-half result (FC Groningen / draw / PEC Zwolle)47.4% / 36.8% / 15.8%
A goal in the first half78.6%
Two or more in the first half50.8%
Half-time then full-time
FC Groningen lead at half-time then FC Groningen win42.5%
Level at half-time then FC Groningen win18.9%
Level at half-time then draw12.0%
Full Asian handicap (model probability)
Lines shown from FC Groningen's side
FC Groningen −2.034.0%
FC Groningen −1.7538.7%
FC Groningen −1.543.4%
FC Groningen −1.2548.5%
FC Groningen −1.053.6%
FC Groningen −0.7558.6%
FC Groningen −0.563.7%
FC Groningen −0.2568.9%
FC Groningen draw no bet (0.0)74.1%
FC Groningen +0.2579.3%
FC Groningen +0.584.5%
FC Groningen +0.7586.7%
FC Groningen +1.089.0%
FC Groningen +1.593.6%
FC Groningen +2.095.8%
Quarter lines (0.25, 0.75) split the stake across two lines, so a half-win or half-loss is possible. Whole lines (0, 1, 2) are refunded when the margin lands exactly on the line. These are probabilities from the Jarvis model, not bookmaker prices.
Market-standard price (decimal)
FC Groningen win1.57
Draw4.82
PEC Zwolle win6.43
Over 2.51.42
Under 2.53.39
This is the market-standard price, converted straight from probability (1 divided by the probability). Every Jarvis reading of money flow, probability and prediction runs on it. Each bookmaker posts its own different price, and those numbers can skew the read, so Nhipbong does not use bookmaker prices for analysis.
Goal margin
FC Groningen wins by more than 1 goals43%
PEC Zwolle wins by more than 1 goals6%